Jakarta – Citi says global trade is undergoing a fundamental transformation as rising tariffs and accelerating artificial intelligence (AI) adoption reshape supply chain dynamics. In its latest Global Perspectives & Solutions (Citi GPS) report titled Supply Chain Finance: Resilient Global Trade in the AI Era, the bank highlights a structural shift toward multipolar and regionalized supply chains.
Adoniro Cestari, Global Head of Trade and Working Capital at Citi, said AI-powered technology is fundamentally reengineering how trade finance operates. Intelligent document processing now improves accuracy while cutting processing times from days to just minutes.
“Through pilot projects involving blockchain-based conditional trade payments, we are seeing the potential evolution from traditional paper-based guarantees to digital execution and near 24/7 automated payment settlement,” Cestari said in an official statement on Thursday (Feb 26, 2026).
The report combines insights from the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), payment flow data from Citi Services exceeding US$5 trillion daily, and survey responses from multinational corporations and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The findings indicate that businesses remain resilient despite global policy volatility.
Citi noted that U.S. tariffs have risen to approximately 16.8%, up from 2.4% prior to recent policy changes. Despite this sharp increase, supply chain pressure levels remain low and close to pre-pandemic conditions. Companies have navigated early tariff shocks through strategic inventory management, supplier diversification, and accelerated nearshoring initiatives.
Regionally, South Asia and ASEAN have emerged as key beneficiaries. Shipments from North and East Asia to these regions increased by 44%. Meanwhile, Latin America has deepened its integration into Asia- and North America-linked supply chains, with exports to South Asia and ASEAN surging 82%—the largest increase globally.
The United States has also diversified its import base. Shipments from South Asia and ASEAN rose 50%, while imports from Latin America increased 43%, outpacing the 32% growth from North and East Asia. This trend underscores a more complex and less centralized global trade structure.
On the technology front, AI is fueling a rare capital expenditure supercycle in data center development. Citi Research estimates that global AI-related capital spending could reach US$7.75 trillion by 2030. Trade finance is playing an increasingly vital role in supporting the complex and capital-intensive buildout of AI infrastructure.
AI adoption in trade finance is also accelerating. Around 36% of large corporations now use AI tools—up 18% from the previous year. Meanwhile, 64% of companies cite rising input costs as their primary concern, with an average 6.3% of working capital currently tied up in tariff-related expenses. To unlock liquidity, businesses are implementing inventory financing, structured receivables programs, and dynamic discounting solutions. (***)
